Political

From the end of January onwards, the public considered the ODS and the CSSD to be the undisputed champions in the election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic’s Parliament – these two parties kept consolidating their position during the following months, to the detriment of the Coalition, which was for a long time, until April, the third most successful group in the election. Shortly before the election, the loss in the popularity of the Coalition meant that the party preferences equalled those of the KSCM, which long ranked fourth and whose changes were seen as very stable during the pre-election six months.

In early June, i.e. a few days before the election, over a half of voters were decided which party to vote for. Less than a fifth of voters (17%) admitted they might change their mind and the same number of respondents (18%) said they were unlikely to vote. Roughly a tenth of respondents did not know. Since this year’s first survey, conducted in late March and early April, there was a gradual increase in the number of the decided, setoff mostly by a drop in the number of those dithering.

In June, the efforts of our country aimed towards the integration in the EU were supported by 56 % of citizens, while 25 % did not agree with it and 19 % did not have an opinion. These results correspond with the long-term findings of PORC characterised by a distinctive prevalence for the support of the entry of the CZ to the EU over the opposite opinion. 7 % of respondents said that they would definitely not come to the referendum in question and 13 % would probably not come.

Just before the election, 34% of those polled said they were satisfied with the political situation in the Czech Republic (‘very satisfied’ – 1%, ‘quite satisfied’ – 33%), whereas 60% expressed dissatisfaction (‘quite dissatisfied’ – 43% and ‘very dissatisfied’ – 17%) and 6% did not know. Compared to the previous month, no statistically important change occurred. Over the course of the last 12 months, the satisfaction with the political situation has oscillated at about 30% of respondents.

When evaluating party preferences in June, the Public Opinion Research Centre employed, compared to surveys conducted in the period between elections, different methods. As was the case in late May, all respondents eligible to vote were on 5 to 12 June 2002 asked a closed question investigating which party they will vote for in the June election to the Chamber of Deputies. The respondents were shown cards with names of all political parties running in the election to the Chamber of Deputies.

The major May events included the planned election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic’s Parliament and the election campaign (25%). The following events are also perceived as significant: the conflict between Israel and Palestine (19%), the validity of the Beneš decrees (15%) and the visit of Laura Bush in the Czech Republic (12%). The planned election and the election campaign in particular were first perceived as significant events in March and their importance kept growing as the election date was nearing.

71% of respondents think that the Beneš Decrees should continue to be in force, 4 % stood up for their cancellation. Expulsion is considered to have been just by almost two thirds of respondents (64 %), on the other hand a total of 22 % think it unjust. Compared with last year, the share of those that considered the expulsion to have been just, went up quite distinctly (+17 percentage points), however in 1995 their number was lower by only 12 percentage points.

Two-fifths of the Czech public tend to think that the responsibility for the existing conflict between Israel and Palestine is shared equally between the two warring parties, one fifth puts the blame on Palestinians and approximately one in twenty Czechs see Israel to be more responsible. Apart from this, disagreement with the practice of the Israeli army in the Palestinian territory dominates among our citizens (36 %) over the opposite opinion (21 %). 73 % think that there is a realistic possibility of further intensification of the conflict in Israel and in the occupied Palestinian territories. The opposite opinion is surpassed by the view that there is a danger of spreading the conflict into neighbouring countries. Expectations of achieving a peaceful solution for the Middle East crisis in the near future are rated by Czechs predominantly sceptically.

To clarify how the electorate decides, a May survey of the Public Opinion Research Centre investigated to what extent voters were certain of their party securing sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies, and how they would behave if not fully certain about it winning seats in the Chamber of Deputies. All those who said which party they wanted to vote for (856 respondents) were asked the following question: ‘Do you think that in the coming election this party will secure sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies?’ A majority (84%) of respondents are certain that the party of their choice will, whereas 11% are not and 5% do not know.

Within its regular survey, the Public Opinion Research Centre again focused on the level of the public’s confidence in individual constitutional institutions. The president is trusted by 51% and not trusted by 45% of the respondents. It is though still possible to say that the level of confidence in the president has been stable for the period of at least two years. The government was viewed as trustworthy by 43%, the Chamber of Deputies by 29%, the Senate by 23% and regional councils by 29% of the respondents.