To clarify how the electorate decides, a May survey of the Public Opinion Research Centre investigated to what extent voters were certain of their party securing sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies, and how they would behave if not fully certain about it winning seats in the Chamber of Deputies. All those who said which party they wanted to vote for (856 respondents) were asked the following question: ‘Do you think that in the coming election this party will secure sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies?’ A majority (84%) of respondents are certain that the party of their choice will, whereas 11% are not and 5% do not know.

Within its regular survey, the Public Opinion Research Centre again focused on the level of the public’s confidence in individual constitutional institutions. The president is trusted by 51% and not trusted by 45% of the respondents. It is though still possible to say that the level of confidence in the president has been stable for the period of at least two years. The government was viewed as trustworthy by 43%, the Chamber of Deputies by 29%, the Senate by 23% and regional councils by 29% of the respondents.

Public opinion concerning individual fields of the current government’s work is positive in most cases. For instance the critical evaluation of social topics, which has persisted from the previous electoral terms, was changed after 2002. More favourable views concerned significantly the evaluation of social security and living standards and a little less significantly employment and housing policies.

35% OF THOSE POLLED ARE SATISFIED WITH THE POLITICAL SITUATION, WHEREAS 61% ARE NOT. In late May, 35% of those polled said they were satisfied with the current political situation in the Czech Republic (‘very satisfied’ – 1%, ‘quite satisfied’ – 34%), whereas 61% were dissatisfied (‘quite dissatisfied’ – 47% and ‘very dissatisfied’ – 14%) and 4% did not know. Young people under 19 years of age, students and apprentices, businessmen, citizens with good living standards and respondents having great trust in constitutional institutions tend to be satisfied.

When evaluating party preferences in May, the Public Opinion Research Centre employed, compared to previous surveys, different methods. In a departure from tradition, all respondents eligible to vote were asked a closed question investigating which party they will vote for in the June election to the Chamber of Deputies. The respondents were shown cards with names of all political parties running in the coming election to the Chamber of Deputies.

Activities of the US-DEU and the ODS in the Chamber of Deputies are more frequently assessed positively by better-educated people and people with good living standards. Citizens with good living standards also more frequently give positive assessment of activities of the CSSD. The KDU-CSL receives an above-average positive assessment in the Olomouc region, whereas it is perceived negatively in big cities.

Since the end of January, when the first survey related to the coming election was conducted, the public considered the ODS and the CSSD to be the two undisputed and very close champions in the election – these two parties kept consolidating their position during the following months, to the detriment of the Coalition, the third most successful group. After the last poll, carried out in late April, the Coalition still had a narrow lead over the KSCM, the fourth most successful party.

How did the electorate perceive the election campaign? According to how respondents of the ‘Our society 2002’ survey assessed the election campaign, it seems that the public was, well in advance, getting psychologically ready for a much fiercer election battle of political parties. In April, i.e. before the peak of the election campaign, respondents were rather critical of the campaign, whereas in late May they were somewhat more willing to admit that election campaigns are necessary and provide them with information about programmes of political parties.

Only 14% of respondents classify themselves as staunch party supporters. On the other hand, 28% of those polled would vote a certain party just because it annoys them the least. The party orientation and a suitable programme are the strongest motivation to vote for a certain party. The family background and participation in party life play the least important role.

Compared to March when no issue was clearly perceived as the most important one, the public was less ambivalent as to the major events occurring in April. Two major events took place in April, being very close in importance: the validity of the Beneš decrees and the conflict between Israel and Palestine. A fifth of those polled consider both of these events to be the most important recent developments.