Recent Major Events

The major May events included the planned election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic’s Parliament and the election campaign (25%). The following events are also perceived as significant: the conflict between Israel and Palestine (19%), the validity of the Beneš decrees (15%) and the visit of Laura Bush in the Czech Republic (12%). The planned election and the election campaign in particular were first perceived as significant events in March and their importance kept growing as the election date was nearing.

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Opinions of the Public on the Beneš Decrees

71% of respondents think that the Beneš Decrees should continue to be in force, 4 % stood up for their cancellation. Expulsion is considered to have been just by almost two thirds of respondents (64 %), on the other hand a total of 22 % think it unjust. Compared with last year, the share of those that considered the expulsion to have been just, went up quite distinctly (+17 percentage points), however in 1995 their number was lower by only 12 percentage points.

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How Do We See the Current Israel-Palestinian Conflict?

Two-fifths of the Czech public tend to think that the responsibility for the existing conflict between Israel and Palestine is shared equally between the two warring parties, one fifth puts the blame on Palestinians and approximately one in twenty Czechs see Israel to be more responsible. Apart from this, disagreement with the practice of the Israeli army in the Palestinian territory dominates among our citizens (36 %) over the opposite opinion (21 %). 73 % think that there is a realistic possibility of further intensification of the conflict in Israel and in the occupied Palestinian territories. The opposite opinion is surpassed by the view that there is a danger of spreading the conflict into neighbouring countries. Expectations of achieving a peaceful solution for the Middle East crisis in the near future are rated by Czechs predominantly sceptically.

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On how the electorate decides

To clarify how the electorate decides, a May survey of the Public Opinion Research Centre investigated to what extent voters were certain of their party securing sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies, and how they would behave if not fully certain about it winning seats in the Chamber of Deputies. All those who said which party they wanted to vote for (856 respondents) were asked the following question: ‘Do you think that in the coming election this party will secure sufficient votes to get into the Chamber of Deputies?’ A majority (84%) of respondents are certain that the party of their choice will, whereas 11% are not and 5% do not know.

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Confidence in constitutional institutions

Within its regular survey, the Public Opinion Research Centre again focused on the level of the public’s confidence in individual constitutional institutions. The president is trusted by 51% and not trusted by 45% of the respondents. It is though still possible to say that the level of confidence in the president has been stable for the period of at least two years. The government was viewed as trustworthy by 43%, the Chamber of Deputies by 29%, the Senate by 23% and regional councils by 29% of the respondents.

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Government evaluation

Public opinion concerning individual fields of the current government’s work is positive in most cases. For instance the critical evaluation of social topics, which has persisted from the previous electoral terms, was changed after 2002. More favourable views concerned significantly the evaluation of social security and living standards and a little less significantly employment and housing policies.

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Satisfaction with the political situation

35% OF THOSE POLLED ARE SATISFIED WITH THE POLITICAL SITUATION, WHEREAS 61% ARE NOT. In late May, 35% of those polled said they were satisfied with the current political situation in the Czech Republic (‘very satisfied’ – 1%, ‘quite satisfied’ – 34%), whereas 61% were dissatisfied (‘quite dissatisfied’ – 47% and ‘very dissatisfied’ – 14%) and 4% did not know. Young people under 19 years of age, students and apprentices, businessmen, citizens with good living standards and respondents having great trust in constitutional institutions tend to be satisfied.

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Party preferences in late May 2002

When evaluating party preferences in May, the Public Opinion Research Centre employed, compared to previous surveys, different methods. In a departure from tradition, all respondents eligible to vote were asked a closed question investigating which party they will vote for in the June election to the Chamber of Deputies. The respondents were shown cards with names of all political parties running in the coming election to the Chamber of Deputies.

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Public assessments of political parties

Activities of the US-DEU and the ODS in the Chamber of Deputies are more frequently assessed positively by better-educated people and people with good living standards. Citizens with good living standards also more frequently give positive assessment of activities of the CSSD. The KDU-CSL receives an above-average positive assessment in the Olomouc region, whereas it is perceived negatively in big cities.

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Expectations of the electorate

Since the end of January, when the first survey related to the coming election was conducted, the public considered the ODS and the CSSD to be the two undisputed and very close champions in the election – these two parties kept consolidating their position during the following months, to the detriment of the Coalition, the third most successful group. After the last poll, carried out in late April, the Coalition still had a narrow lead over the KSCM, the fourth most successful party.

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Voter decision-making during the election campaign

How did the electorate perceive the election campaign? According to how respondents of the ‘Our society 2002’ survey assessed the election campaign, it seems that the public was, well in advance, getting psychologically ready for a much fiercer election battle of political parties. In April, i.e. before the peak of the election campaign, respondents were rather critical of the campaign, whereas in late May they were somewhat more willing to admit that election campaigns are necessary and provide them with information about programmes of political parties.

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